Chads Might Be Hanging

It was unfortunately obvious in my political science classes that even college students in the US of A often don’t understand the differences between parliamentary systems and our own presidential form of republic. The concept of multi-party politics which is basic to most parliamentary systems (except for the remarkably stable British model), is alien to Americans who are steeped in a two-party history—even though we usually can’t explain the various mechanisms that perpetuate that either. So, it is remarkable the amount of coverage we are seeing in our newspapers regarding the recent German elections.

There’s a lot going on in that election. Some points to note right at the beginning: Germany has been, to put it kindly, in the economic doldrums for several years. Unemployment is high, taxes are high, production is low, and a strong case could be made that pacifism, socialism and ennui in the younger generation are fomenting a decline of unprecedented magnitude. Americans were, in large measure, surprised when Chancellor Schroeder’s government was less than supportive in our war against global terrorism. We might have considered the fifty years or so of US military defense of central Europe in general and the former Federal Republic in particular as contributing to the genesis of those attitudes. But, despite our considerable sacrifices on their behalf, Germany wasn’t eager to offer blood, sweat, tears or Deutschmarks to the effort.

Germany has been under strain since reunification. The economic powerhouse of a capitalist FRG had allowed a very prosperous lifestyle and the institutionalizing of loads of welfare programs, such as “kindergelt” which paid for procreation, the “kur” which paid for spa vacations for workers every couple of years, the health care, the retirement programs, the five week per year vacations, etc. When reunification came, suddenly the integration of the six lander of the former DDR caused instant class envy. The former Communists had high expectations for services and low dedication to the sort of hard work that the West Germans were comfortable with. Receiving to meet their needs was demanded, but contributing according to their ability was mostly expected from the more prosperous West. The impossible task of raising the East to the level of the West without a deterioration of the standard of living in that West was apparent.

The surprise then is that we suddenly have an election in which the conservative, free-market capitalist candidate who wants to cut welfare, increase individual responsibility and downsize government is a former DDR citizen. The incumbent who had presided over the economic slump was born and bred in the democratic West. Early polling showed the conservative with a huge lead—indicative of a nationwide dissatisfaction with the status quo. In a parliamentary system, that translates to a lot of legislative seats shifting to the party of the conservative leader. A majority in the parliament means their leader becomes chancellor (or prime minister.)

But, in a multi-party system, a pure majority is a tough goal to reach. Lots of parties mean a dissipation of the vote as the electorate finds just the perfect party nuance for their ideology. A spectrum of party positions means that the usual outcome will be a plurality for a major party but not an outright majority. And, that’s what happened. What is remarkable though is how the victory of Angela Merkel is being downplayed. Winning Can be Losing

Yep, she won the election—not by a lot, but she DID win. Reading the newspaper though you would think she lost. Even Ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder who LOST thinks he really won! The difference in percentage of the total votes is a thin 0.9% of the total. The difference in Bundestag seats between Merkel’s party and Schroeder’s is only five seats. But, Merkel got more total votes and Merkel’s party holds more seats than Schroeder’s bunch.

So, ask yourself the reasonable question—how large was the Schroeder mandate from the previous election? Well, he won by around 1% of the total vote cast and his party held a five seat margin. Makes me reminisce about the American presidential elections. Where is the outrage? Where are the pickets with the signs declaring the outcome was rigged. Who is complaining about the disenfranchisement of the down-trodden minorities of the former communist lander?

This is going to be interesting. Merkel certainly squandered a lot of votes with a poorly run campaign—most analysts are accusing her of being TOO HONEST! She actually was saying what she believed. She was announcing what was wrong in the nation and describing the tough measures she was planning to enact if elected to cure the economy, restore national vitality and elevate Germany to a proper leadership role in the EU.

I can only hope that she gets a chance.