Is There Hope?

Suddenly I’m revitalized about the fall elections. Just when the world looked darkest, I’ve got new optimism about the ability of the apathetic, uninterested, apparently ignorant electorate to make decisions and learn about the process. This might be an indication that we can move the final date marking The Decline and Fall of the American Empire out another ten years or so. One can only hope.

The pundits are falling all over themselves trying to “explain” (that’s a euphemism for spin to their own purposes) the loss of Joe Lieberman in Connecticut’s Democratic Senate primary. You’d have to be living in dark cave to have missed the issue here. We’ve got the “I’m Not Them” party desperately trying to distance themselves from the votes which they cast to authorize our involvement in Iraq actively repudiating an incumbent senator and committee chairman who was their Vice-Presidential nominee six short years ago. He was reliable and acceptable enough then to be just a heart-beat away from the Presidency, but now he has been declared pariah.

This is going to be a great lesson for those who haven’t figured it out regarding the process of elections in the US. It isn’t just what happens in November. There are those primaries and caucuses and assemblies that lead up to getting a name on a ballot with an identifying (R) or (D) behind it. The problem that escapes most voters who proudly declare their independence from party politics is that mainstream voters don’t really have much say about what finally shows up on the November menu. It’s the party extremists that do the anointing in the primaries. And, that’s the cabal with which Lieberman has run afoul.

Once, it was right and proper and dutiful representation of his constituents to vote for use of military force to depose a totalitarian despot and counter a terrorist threat. Then, Joe voted his conscience—as did Hillary and Biden and Kerry (before he voted against it…) but, now the party of the left wants to rewrite that history. In the process, they are willing to throw a very influential Senator out with the trash and put a somewhat inexperienced millionaire in the seat because his strongest (and maybe only) coherent policy position is that he is against the war.

This behavior highlights the superficiality of “Senatorial collegiality” which is supposed to overcome mere policy disagreements for the greater good of the nation. It shows how very willing the incumbents are to stand on the shoulders of those who might be drowning to get a seat in the lifeboat for themselves. When Lieberman started to look shaky in his primary bid, there was almost a race among his Senatorial associates to abandon him for his out-of-step position—that’s the one of being consistent in his belief that the nation was and is threatened.

So, now we see Joe defeated in his party primary by Ned Lamont. Let’s ignore the anti-Semitic issues that were raised. And, don’t look at the dirty tricks like highjacking of the Lieberman Web site on election eve. Let’s just look at the outcome of the election and see if we can determine what to watch for in the coming weeks.

First, Lamont doesn’t have any experience to speak of in government. He’s not a heavy hitter on major policy discussions. His major credential is the anti-war appeal to the extreme left of his party. Wait for a candidate’s debate for Lieberman to take young Ned to the woodshed.

Second, let’s acknowledge that there is no conceivable possibility of the Republican nominee being elected in Connecticut. Dunno why, as the state is much more white-collar and educated than the mainstream demographic of the liberal party, but that is the way it is. Republican candidate need not apply. That leaves a lot of Republicans and conservative independents with no home in this storm.

Third, Lieberman is a household name. He’s got lots of recognition and a load of experience as well as Senatorial seniority which should play well in the general election. He’s got the signatures to get on the November ballot as an independent candidate. He’s got an experienced organization. And, there’s no doubt that he’s got fund-raising connections.

So, let’s predict the election. Like most states, the electorate is divided in approximate thirds: Reps, Dems and Unaffiliated (AKA independents.) Lieberman still has a lot of appeal among the Democrats. He drew a lot of votes in the primary loss. The Republicans, if they are smart enough to recognize the fact that their candidate won’t stand a chance, might go with the devil they know—who is very moderate—for the devil they don’t—who is unflinchingly liberal. Then, the mainstream and generally moderate unaffiliated voters will swing between the incumbent and the challenger. I’m betting that there are more of those independent voters who will choose experience and name recognition over extremism and arguably misguided pacifism. So, I’m willing to bet that the Republican Party will give a perfunctory nod to their nominee and then shift a lot of resources to support of Lieberman. The Democrat hard-core that voted for Lieberman in the primary will stick with him, and the larger portion of the unaffiliated voters will vote for Lieberman. Look for Joe to prevail in the fall.

And, in Atlanta, in yet another bright spot on the election horizon, we see Democrat voters repudiating Cynthia McKinney, proving that at some point even they can recognize sheer lunacy. Just in case anyone thought she might have been poorly portrayed in some of the coverage of her Washington antics, her “concession” speech proved she is undeniably affiliated with the tinfoil cap crowd.

Ya gotta love it!!