The Three Bears Forecast:

You remember the Goldilocks story. There was the traditional single-child Bear family, with one momma, one poppa and one baby. They didn’t maintain much security in their peaceful neighborhood, so when Britney or Paris or Pamela or whomever the blond was that was roaming the woods broke into the place she found a range of appeal in most everything she tried. Usually there were the two possible extremes and then one that was just right. So too with predictions for the coming year.

If you are of the pessimistic persuasion, you might look at this one:

Gloomy Poll

Or, if you lean toward the bright side of the spectrum and see your glasses as half full, then try this:

Sunshine Poll

If you are a realist and think back on predictions made in previous years you should be able to acknowledge that these exercises are always wrong…or always right…to some degree or another.

Let me make some predictions. They will be as right or wrong as those of the highly paid pundits and worth exactly what you are paying for them. It will give me a chance, however, to point back at them when the predictions come true during the year or, conveniently to ignore them if nothing of the sort comes to pass.

First: there will be a major terrorist attack on US soil during the coming year. That is pretty much guaranteed. It will probably be Islamist jihadists, but it could just as easily be some kook wanna-be playing for his fifteen minutes of infamy. Regardless, a lot of people will die and once again we will get serious about security and maybe this time we will keep at it until we’ve made some progress.

Two: enviro-whackos will continue to preach global warming and eco-terrorism but sensible folks will begin to acknowledge that we can’t have it both ways. If we want to continue living in the manner to which we’ve become accustomed, we are going to have to drill for oil, build power-plants, transport goods on highways, clone animals and plants to insure a food supply and chop down trees to build our homes. We will begin to compromise and maybe stop trying to operate with our hands tied by excessive environmental legislation.

Three: the new congress will increase the minimum wage, repeal tax cuts and increase hand-outs to the growing welfare class. The result will be a plunge in the Dow, increased unemployment, accelerating inflation and much higher interest rates as consumer optimism goes down. The voting public will not link the cause and effect.

Four: we will not do a single thing to deal with illegal immigration. Nothing, nada, zippo, zilch! No walls, no visas, no registration, no deportations, no employer oversights and not much more than talk without walk from the political panderers in Washington.

Fifth: there will not be a draft. Both parties will point at the other side and say it is them that will be taking our children to fight in unjust wars. The military will correctly state that we don’t want unwilling conscripts to train and attempt to manage. Spoiled American youth will whine that it isn’t their fault and they see no reason to serve. Consideration will be given to outsourcing the contract for our defense. Bangladesh will bid on the job.

Sixth: even the Democrats will begin to recognize that Hillary Clinton has too much baggage to be a viable candidate for president. While the party faithful might yearn for a return to the Clinton era, mainstream—and generally quiet—America doesn’t want to dredge through all of the associated muck again. They will also realize that Barack Obama needs a minimum of two terms in the Senate before he proves some capability for the top slot.

Seventh: the Republicans will whimper when John McCain announces that his health won’t let him run, but many will know that he isn’t what the Reagan conservative core of the party seeks. Guiliani isn’t either, but he will be a major contender. Look for a rise to prominence of someone we still haven’t heard from. Governors are always good choices.

Eighth: Windows Vista will be a huge success. The usual suspects will gripe about vulnerabilities and instability, but users will be dazzled and honest folks will have to concede that MS has hit a homerun.

Ninth: there will be a re-emergence of class, culture and sophistication in American Society. People will not show the slightest interest in whether Paris has a dog, Britney has underwear, Angelina has a baby, or Madonna has hot flashes. Tabloids at grocery store checkout counters will disappear in bankruptcy and rap music will no longer cause my bedroom walls to vibrate as some idiot with $10,000 worth of stereo in a $400 car drives by. (OK, none of this will happen, but I wish it would.)

And Tenth: the US will slowly withdraw from Iraq as a politically driven run-up to a presidential election year. The result will be increasing violence in that country, increasing adventurism by Iran, increasing vulnerability to energy supplies for Europe, Russia and the Far East, and an increasing realization that we made a mistake—not by going there, but by leaving.

I promise to come back to this next year—good Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise. We’ll see how I did.