Monday, December 19, 2011

Good News--Bad News

By now you've seen the headline:

Kim Jung Il Assumes Room Temp

So what comes next?

He paved the transition pathway last year with the elevation of his manifestly unqualified and virtually unknown third son to four-star general status and several other high-level party positions. This would put the qualification for chief executive of North Korea on a par with the incumbent of our own White House. That might be good news for us as a bumbling youth tries to learn on the job. But a bumbling youth with delusions of grandeur and competence in charge of a nuclear (sort-of) power is a tad scary. It might work in a stable and established democracy, but in an authoritarian autocracy things can shake out differently.

We may see a modernization effort and rapprochement with the West and NK's neighbors ala Gorbechev/Yeltsin. Or we might see a frantic attempt at consolidation of power and a demonstration of brutal control exercised through a cadre of loyalists seeking their own benefits. Somehow I think the latter is more probable.

Or we might see an attempt at a coup before such consolidation has a chance to take place. Ambitious opponents with access to a very disciplined military might attempt an overthrow of the dictator. And, that as well, could go either way with respect to the relations with the rest of the world.

Indeed I do live in interesting times.

7 comments:

nzgarry said...

I think that the chances of positive change are slim. The son has the same cruel and inscrutable visage as his father. At 29 yrs of age things will stay the same there for years to come. I would love to be wrong. Lets hope that the USA/West doesnt have to deal with a young mans belligerence.

Anonymous said...

You are not alone,we all live in interesting times and then _ _ _.

Anonymous said...

Ed,

I get the feeling that while reunfication was something the South Koreans wished fervently for during the cold war I now get the feeling that the South Korean ardor for it has cooled to the point of ice water since viewing the experience and pain of German reunification.

Any comments or knowledge you have on on the RoK views on reunification would be of interest.

on another note... If I was a Chinese Communist I would be sick to my stomach at the idea of "Dear Leader" being a heriditary position. Me I'm LMAO... until I think about the victims enslaved under Dear Leader the III

~leadfoot

Anonymous said...

I give "Dear Leader the III" about two weeks before he gets whacked and I think that might be overly optimistic.

~leadfoot

Sarge said...

I agree with Annonymous. III will get whacked and soon,the sister could be the one to do it.

I installed telephone lines to the ROK White Horse Division, in Vietnam they were a ruff and ready bunch very effective warriors.

MagiK said...

Err. Germany is doing quite well after re-unification, they are the lone Economic Power in the Crumbling EU....I don't get your reference at all Leadfoot ???

Dweezil Dwarftosser said...

At reunification, W. Germany inherited a pure welfare state - for which, they would pay, big time.

It rocked their excellent economy to its core. It seems that many from the East were strangers to the West's work ethic: dependent upon the state for free housing, utilities, a guaranteed job (whether they worked at it or not), and of course, the same health care as existing W. Germans.

The US closed down many military bases there . . . just in time for E. Germans to move in to the old family housing areas and barracks, while they waited for prosperity to include them. (It must be where the 'Occupy Wall St.' crowd got many of their cues.)

I'm amazed that Germany is doing as good (economically) as it is, with such a burden of lazy or inept new countrymen.