Saturday, July 31, 2010

Calculated Myopia

You are not supposed to think too deeply about complex issues. Simply listen to the Messiah and know all that you need to know. He was in Detroit yesterday explaining to the workers in a GM plant how a $60 billion bailout saved 55,000 jobs. (Ignore the 334,000 lost in the bankruptcies.) While claiming credit for saving all three of the Big 3 automakers and simultaneously ignoring the fact that Ford didn't get bailed, didn't go bankrupt and did make a profit without him, the Bamster touted the soon to be released Chevy Volt as a "game-changing product" like an iPhone. Of course, that requires you to be unaware that the iPhone achieved success in a free market and the Volt will be heavily subsidized and virtually useless.

Forty Miles and Look For an Outlet

Of course, after you've depleted your battery charge, the lawnmower engine kicks in and keeps you minimally mobile until you find a light socket. Why you can get about 340 miles before having to fill up the tiny tank with actual gasoline--sort of the same range you get in a real car, but without all the comfort or performance.

Let's ignore the cost of $41,000 for the car. You really won't pay that. Well, someone will, but it won't be you Mr. Greenjeans, since you will be subsidized by the government for $7500 dollars of that price. Taxpayers will foot the bill so you actually WILL pay that, or at least your children and grandchildren will. Of course you could buy a very well equipped Impala, Hundai Genesis, Infiniti G37, or Ford Taurus for that money which would get you a fast, comfortable, and reasonably economical car that you could go somewhere in.

But, let's say you like the economy of the electric car concept. Let's go to second level. What happens to our world when this shocking vehicle becomes de rigeur? What will it cost your company to install charging stations throughout the parking lot at work? What will the mall look like when you go shopping? What will your city streets look like when the parking meters are all rewired for charging? How many meth-heads will it take to haul the copper wire away?

Then consider your household budget. In Texas where I live, my electric bill goes up by a factor of four when summer comes and I run the air conditioning. What will my electric bill look like when I'm charging two Volts in my garage every single night for an eight hour cycle?

Of course, that assumes that we actually can get electricity to service this nightmare. Are we overlooking the power grid to support this? Can you recall "rolling blackouts" and "brownouts" from overload at current peak usage levels?

What will fuel the necessary new power plants? We can't use oil, we might use natural gas, we eschew clean coal technology and woe betide anyone who suggests nuclear.

Don't think about it. The Bamster will tell us what is good for us. Don't look behind the curtain.

1 comment:

Ralph said...

Raz, you touched on several important points that deserve more public attention.

On the auto industry bailout, I actually give Obama credit − but only up to a point. The president was correct to reject the GM and Chrysler reorganization plans, and recognize the need for prepackaged Chapter 11 bankruptcies. (And let’s give W some credit for preserving the option to deal with this for the incoming administration!) However, the new president was not above board in his dealings, as evidenced by the action to stiff the bondholders and favor the UAW. Also troubling are the very large equity positions that the U.S. and Canadian governments took in the brand new enterprises that now bear the legacy names. But in 2008 our uninformed electorate had yet to learn that a vote for Obama was a vote against individual rights and private property, instead favoring government ownership and/or control of large portions of our economy.

You also point correctly to the Messiah’s fascination with the Volt and other “green” cars whose environmental benefits are illusory. While the Volt will have a 1.4L engine to keep the battery charged and thereby provide an acceptable range (unlike the Nissan Leaf), I have yet to see any objective analysis that shows much demand for an unsubsidized car. Both the Obama administration and the “environmentalists” fail to understand that the four-stroke Otto-cycle engines (both spark ignition and the compression-ignition Diesel) have been around since circa 1876-93, and are still in widespread use, because they are superior technologies that are continuous refined and economical to use. People buy them on their own volition because they choose to do so, not because of government subsidies. But within the new GM there is some sanity; the much-hyped Volt will be produced in rather limited numbers; it will fulfill political mandates rather than market demand. Left remaining is the big political question: at what point will the electorate and the media recognize that we cannot possibly construct either the generating capacity or a power grid capable of supporting millions of all-electric cars for many years, if not decades? At least the road to serfdom provides some useful lessons in technology and economics for the dwindling minority that believes in the Messiah.

By the way Raz, your thoughtful and entertaining blogs go up seven days a week for the benefit of us all, but only because of considerable effort on your part. And that effort continues on holidays and throughout the summer, when most of us get stand-down days. So thanks for watching our six o’clock and making each day a little more meaningful and enjoyable. You will always be a great fighter pilot, with your blog leading the pack in mach+ super-cruise.