The Plot Thickens

It is a statistical, historic fact that an incumbent President's party loses seats generally in the off-year election. That was seen very clearly in the Republican revolution of 1994 when just two years after Bill Clinton swept into the White House, both chambers of the legislature went heavily Republican. It occurred again in 2006 when George W. Bush's eroding popularity cost the GOP both houses, leading up to the 2008 election debacle that many viewed as the final stake in the heart of conservatism. Presidential coat-tails bump the party delegation and in off-year elections, the Presidential identification becomes a liability.

Well, we're coming upon an off-off-year election. It isn't even a congressional contest. This is just ten months after the Messiah, clad in immaculate toga and laurel wreath ascended the steps of the presidential mansion. The runes are saying that the collapse of the "hope and change" brigade is coming faster than anyone could imagine. Not only is the GOP not dead, more significantly the backlash against the party's drift away from pure conservatism is being reversed.

The Virginia governor's race is all but over. Democrat Creigh Deeds is declared DOA by the President himself, despite a half-hearted prop-up visit to the state last week. Done deal there.

The New Jersey governor contest is more complicated, but the message there is that if it weren't for a split of the vote between a Republican and a more conservative independent, the incumbent Democrat would be sleeping with the political fishes.

The emerging Cinderella story, however is New York's 23rd congressional district where a vacancy election is being held, necessitated by the appointment of the incumbent as Secretary of the Army. There the state rules are that a caucus of the party leadership appoints a candidate and no primary is held for the vacancy election. The Republican pary has received a slap-down of magnificent proportions as their choice has been spurned by both social and traditional conservatives.

The result has been essentially a three-way tie between a non-descript party loyalist Democrat, the Republican nominee in disfavor, and a surprise power demonstration of a conservative independent. Clearly the vote splitting is between the Republican and the conservative. Without that split, the Democrat loses handily.

This morning, from the newspaper of record within the district, we get this:

Dede Drops Da Bomb

In what clearly is a self-sacrifice rarely seen in modern American politics, the unpopular Scozzafava has dropped out and with that news, we should see a convincing victory by Hoffman to hold a Republican seat. The signal is that conservatism in the Ronald Reagan mold may still be very much alive even within the midst of a decidedly blue state.