Because We Can

If one needed a crash course in the realities of our dangerous world you couldn’t go far wrong with some serious study of the Russian invasion of Georgia. It very clearly demonstrates the critical difference between what we wish were so and what actually is. We like to view the world through Obama colored glasses, seeing a panorama of highly intellectual nations arrayed in diplomatic frock coats and pince-nez sipping tea and discussing the nuances of cleaning up poverty and disease while simultaneously equalizing income not only in the US but around the globe. It is the world of Woodrow Wilson and Neville Chamberlain displayed in broad pastel strokes.

We have treaties and alliances that have made war a thing of the past. That was a brutal, stone-age solution to issues of the Twentieth Century which we have grown beyond. We’ve got trans-national corporations influencing politics, not jingoistic dictators. We’ve built a network of non-governmental organizations which transcends nationalism and offers us politely discussed solutions when problems arise. As Lyndon Johnson might have said, “let us reason together,” and we’ll find a solution. Let’s simply sit down and talk our problems through. We have evolved to a state in which we can be civilized.

That isn’t the way it is yet. Someone tell the Eloi that the Morlocks are out of their hole. Russia knows that the best way to stabilize a domestic political situation is to turn the focus outward. Create an enemy and then vanquish him. It gives you global stature and patriotic fervor. It’s win-win for the guys in power. Hitler knew it, Mussolini knew it, Mao knew it, Hugo Chavez and Ahmadinejad know it. And, so does Putin/Medvedev know it.

Those nasty Georgians are ethnically cleansing the good Russians living in South Ossetia and Abkhazia so let’s go down there and teach them a lesson. They don’t stand a chance of beating back our forces with their puny military. We’ve got somebody close by that we can whip quickly and no one can do a thing about it. We re-establish Russian pride. We regain respect for Russian military might, rusty though it might be. We show the former Socialist Republics that this flirting with NATO is not in their best interests. Now, what can they do about it?

The fact is that we can’t do a damned thing. Our military has been cut to the bone to satisfy America’s demand for welfare. We’re involved in a necessary two-front war and scattered globally dealing with terrorists, defense pacts and training requirements. We don’t really want to go nose-to-nose with the Bear. It would be a meat-grinder and we lack the will to fight.

The United Nations isn’t going to do a damned thing. The Security Council is powerless, as it was designed to be, with Russia ready to veto any action. The General Assembly is largely third-world anti-Americans and/or Euro-Socialist dependents on Russian gas and oil. Even if they did become suitably indignant over Russian aggression, they are totally toothless in mustering any sort of military response.

NATO has divulged to the world—at least to that part of the world which hadn’t already realized it—that they are today an effete debating society with little spine for incurring actual casualties in a combat situation. The emergency meeting of NATO ministers resulted in release of prissy language regarding their displeasure and sincere intent to be affronted at some undisclosed time in the possibly near future. Chamberlain would seem downright belligerent compared to Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

Bottom line for the NATO countries is they get to play with the big boys, benefit from the historic US defense umbrella, and when push comes to shove they meet their obligations with a platoon of communication specialists or cooks. No trigger pullers or cannon-cockers available from most of them. It has worked for sixty years, but apparently the arrangement has eroded with US War on Terror involvement.

The core European powers, led by France and Germany would love to do more—or at least they publicly imply that they would. But, they depend for their economic survival on Russian energy sources and have developed a huge trade with the developing industrial giant to the East. Strong words regarding the invasion of Georgia, wink-wink, and we really are displeased Valerie. Stop it this instant…or when it suits you.

So, the Russians sign a cease-fire and promise to withdraw immediately. Or, maybe by Tuesday. Or they’ll get organized for an orderly withdrawal in about ten days or so. Or, maybe the techniques that kept Stalin in Eastern Europe after 1945 are still writ large in the play book.

The incontrovertible fact of international relations is that nations aren’t moral actors. They aren’t good guys and bad. They are amoral characters acting in their national self-interest. They do what they want to do if they can do it. They don’t do what they want to do if it is clear that someone else can stop them. In this situation, no one can stop them. They do it because they can.