Whose Coat-tails?

There is a new polling term-du-jour in the mouths of the punditry, “the Generic Ballot.” I’d not encountered it before yesterday, but then found it referenced again in this insightful piece:

What to Point At

The gist of Bill Kristol’s editorial is that the very words of Sen. Obama four years ago in illuminating why John Kerry was qualified to be the next President of the United States reveal quite precisely the Messiah’s own shortcomings. But notice the comments regarding the generic ballot and take a moment to consider the dynamics.

In a period during which the US has again demonstrated its total lack of enthusiasm for any level of discomfort whether personally experienced or only vicariously through the nightly coverage of combat operations, the desire for an ideological change (there’s that word again,) means that the Democrats will gain a lot of votes from those tired of Republicans. With the economy somewhat debatably in a form of recession, a shift in policy makers seems to be on the horizon. So that is where this generic ballot comes into play.

Voters who really aren’t all that clear about their personal ideology appear eager to punch the chad for “Anyone But Bush.” The Obama campaign has done a fantastic job of chanting the very questionable assumption that John McCain is a Bush sycophant and his election will be a continuation of the same policies. Objective analysis of that thesis will quickly demonstrate much more opposition to Bush policies and ideologically pure Republicans than agreement emanating from McCain. Yet, the message has been sold. That means that the perception has become one that supports voting for any Democrat in preference to any Republican.

But here is where the strange thing happens. The generic ballot, comparisons of unnamed Dems versus unnamed Reps, shows a double-digit preference for Democrats this election cycle. When the names are inserted for the Presidential race an unusual and atypical phenomenon is displayed. Rather than showing a much greater advantage for Dems, the margin contracts to within the margin of error. The coat-tails which a party always cling to in a landslide election are not only not there but the numbers indicate that the top of the ticket is worse off than the party itself.

Building the froth of campaign enthusiasm for the Messiah in the next couple of days is going to be a very entertaining display of packaging and script-writing. The Nuremberg…er, Invesco Field rally on Thursday is going to have to outdo the Beijing opening and closing ceremonies combined. Can we get a couple of battalions of those Chinese storm-troopers to march in and raise some flags or some acrobats or something? Hey Beck, can you do some lighting for this gig?