He Was Off On Scheduling

Even the blind pig finds an acorn occasionally. We tend to dismiss Vice-President Biden as a bit of a buffoon, expecting a laughable gaffe whenever he opens his mouth. But, even a broken clock is right twice a day...that is if you can read an analog clock.

Remember when he said this:



Well, he was wrong wasn't he?

He said Kennedy was tested within six months, and unless you are counting the Bay of Pigs fiasco which was a defeat for Cuban freedom fighters and not really a major foreign policy challenge for JFK, it took almost 21 months for the serious test to come along with the Cuban Missile Crisis. That confrontation with the Soviet Union was the step-up-to-plate moment for the young whiz-kid from Hahvahd.

So, we've had a rise in terrorist activity in the last year. We've had N. Korea, Venezuela, Russia, China and the Middle East very visibly rubbing the administration's nose in the dirt. But, we haven't really had one of those "this could be the big one" moments like the near tip-over into nuclear war of October 1962.

What then do we make of this:

February 11th Is The Day

It is a symbolic day. It is the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It is the day that the resistance, despite lack of visible support from the US, is organizing to take to the streets of Iran in protest. It could signal a revolutionary movement to oust the fundamentalists and return the nation to a more modern and secular path. It could be the trigger for brutal represssion as well.

Historically we see dictators and autocratic rulers re-direct pressure against the regime to scapegoats external to the country. Nothing unifies a crumbling polity like a common enemy. If that enemy is simultaneously stereotyped from a long history of animosity, so much the better. Could we see the prominent target within reach of Iran struck by the first demonstration of Iranian nuclear power?

In the absence of a completed nuclear weapon, what about chemical or biological WMD on an intermediate range missile aimed at Tel Aviv?

Can Isreal wait and see? Can the Messiah develop a policy response to defuse this situation rather than ponder until all that remains is reaction to a fait accompli?

We've got ten days to watch the plot unfold. The worst thing that could happen is that we don't take Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seriously.

Biden was correct, just a bit too eager in his time schedule.