Tomorrow's election will be pretty exciting for an off-year, odd-year, contest. Here in Texas we've got a ballot with five constitutional amendments on it. These are minor changes to the state constitution and predictions right now are for a lighter turn out than two years ago when just eight percent of registered voters cast a ballot. In Ft. Worth, the prediction is around three percent. That's democracy in action!
The real excitement comes in those three East Coast tests of first electorate reaction to the Obama policies and the heavy-handed legislative legerdemain of the Democratic congress. We've got two governor races in play and a vacancy election in upstate New York for a congressional seat.
Right now the Virginia race is pretty much a sure thing for McDonnell, the Republican. His opponent, Creigh Deeds, got the ultimate bitch-slap today when the last minute campaign boost came in the form of a visit by VP Biden. The Messiah, apparently, is done with him. Virginia is arguably the quintessential "purple" state, but they've leaned blue rather than red the last couple of years. Loser here is the Obama team.
New Jersey is the poster-child for corrupt, mismanaged social welfare dedicated government. The incumbent governor carries so much baggage he makes Rod Blagojevich look attractive. There is a virtual toss-up there, although that has been shifting as the independent candidate's voter base has declined and the Republican, Chris Christie has gained a slight margin. Loser here is anyone with a job and hoping to make a living in a corrupt state.
The grand insight is the least powerful position at risk in the three contests. The glimpse into the future of the Republican, nee Conservative Party afforded by the soap opera in NY-23 is both optimistic and a disaster. The party chosen candidate was so liberal that even the New York voters noticed. The district which has been represented by a Republican for decades wasn't going to go quietly for a candidate simply because there was an "R" by her name. She lost momentum and a staunch conservative emerged without a party imprimatur.
Along the way, former Speaker Newt Gingrich cast his not insignificant endorsement her way in a classic appeal to "party unity"--the not totally incorrect argument that any Republican, even a liberal one, is a better choice than a Democrat. National Chairman, Michael Steele, voiced similar justification for supporting her.
Problems arose when the independent began to get endorsements from less regimented conservatives like Sarah Palin, Michelle Bachman and Tim Pawlenty.
The real clinker in the process came when the Republican, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race. That should have signaled a gracious side-step to let the preferred conservative take the field. It didn't. Following a midnight call from the Don of Division Street, AKA "The Messiah", Dede endorsed the Democrat! Which says a lot for her Republican bona fides.
The loser here, by a significant margin, is Newt Gingrich. Any pretension he ever had of being a transcendent conservative who was above the petty partisan fray and averse to the "go-along to get-along" methodology of Washington is now irretrievably lost. We'll hear little more from Newt for a while now and he shouldn't be a significant player in either 2010 or 2012 politics. Too bad, he coulda been a contender...
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