The Pluralistic Society

The pundits are going to be in overdrive for the next four days. They have been telling us sequentially who is going to be the GOP presidential nominee for nearly a year and a half. They have elevated and then decapitated one after another, shaping the race and molding the minds of the mindless masses. They've got a disaster in the White House and they want to keep him there for another four years. They know what is best for us and they've seen behind the curtain that the big bucks come to those who support the administration even while the administration is ostensibly vilifying the wealthy. How does Corzine misplace $1.2 billion? How does a solar cell company with a $400 billion million cash infusion go bankrupt in a year?

Now we are getting to crunch time. Actual voters will be expressing actual preferences starting next Tuesday. The snowball is going to roll. But does it really reflect much of anything when it does begin that trajectory?

Iowa is a caucus state. Do you know what that means? It means a marketplace of competing ideas thrown into an arena of neighbors gathered for one cold and snowy night and then a division of preferences rather than a secret ballot. Supporters stand and pontificate on why their conservative is better than your RINO. Some of those pontificators might actually have facts at their command and some might actually be oratorical geniuses. But does it reflect a political preference for the nation to be swayed?

Think about America. Now think about Iowa. Does Iowa look like a microcosm of our nation?

Is Iowa 18% African-American? Is Iowa 16% Latino? Does Iowa have a single metropolitan area of a million people? What is Iowa's industrial contribution? What religious diversity does Iowa have? What percentage of Iowa falls into each economic class and how does that compare to America? Iowa has just seven electoral college votes.

Iowa is rural, agricultural, white-bread, small town Protestant. It's lovely but it really is a very tiny tail wagging a very dissimilar dog.

What will we see come Tuesday? Here's my estimate and it is worth exactly what you've paid to come here and read it:

Ron Paul will finish in the top 3. And, as Count Basie would note, "it ain't got that swing..." It don't mean a thing!

Rick Perry will do better than most pundits have predicted, probably at #3 or 4.

Romney will finish top three as well, but his real focus has been on New Hampshire. He's got support and voters could easily vote for him in the general election, so he's comfortable for now. New Hampshire, however, is similarly weak on parallels to America at large so it may not be very meaningful in the long run.

Gingrich will barely remain in the top tier. He may surprise but I'm suspecting the Ron Paul slash attacks have wounded him among many Iowa voters. That's too bad.

Santorum will be the surprise strong showing. He's burned up shoe leather and he's a likable guy with an approachable style. I think that will play well in Iowa.

Bachmann and Huntsman will drop into the background noise level.

1. Paul
2. Santorum
3. Romney
4. Perry
5. Gingrich
6. Bachmann
7. Huntsman

But after Iowa, Paul will peter out.